PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 50.5%-1.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$161
Liquidity
$1.9K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
2
7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 12:53 AM UTCJan 5, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- - Democrats have a seat count of 235 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 51 or more in the Senate
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
- The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 45%. Quotes span about 6 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 45% · 2 venues · 6 pt venue spread
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3B
- 24h Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Delcy Rodríguez+41.0pt56%
- Nicolás Maduro-39.9pt43%
- No Head of State-0.1pt1%
+13 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt16%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $706.6M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $221.9M
- 24h Vol
- $635.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep-1.0pt58.6%
- D-House, R-Senate30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.2pt10.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.7M
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
- What will Trump say this week?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Blue tsunami in 2026??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 51% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Blue tsunami in 2026? resolve?
- Blue tsunami in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2027.
- How is Blue tsunami in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Where else is Blue tsunami in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.