PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
5.5 to 5.6 77.7%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
5.5 to 5.6 77.7%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 4:07 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 6:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
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Kalshi10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Polymarket9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on September 30, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
- Brackets: the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome / the named outcome.
- Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
- The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on September 30, 2026.
- An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.
- Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.