KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 5 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 8:31 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Above 5
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 4:56 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above 599%
Above 128%
Above 699%
Above 978%
Above 138%
Above 1033%
Above 115%
Above 5Won
Above 6Lost
Above 8Lost
Above 9Lost
Above 7Lost
Above 10Lost
Above 12Lost
Above 13Lost
Above 11Lost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If more than 5 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- If more than 6 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 7 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 8 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 9 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If more than 10 hurricanes of category 1 or above occur in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026 as confirmed by the National Weather Service or equivalent national weather service, then the market resolves to Yes.
