Current implied probability
AfD 29.5%-3.0ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.7K
Liquidity
$71.4K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 1:15 AM UTCSep 20, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWhich party will win the 2026 Berlin state election?
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KalshiRules
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
- If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
- The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election.
- If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher.
- If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+1.8pt37.4%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt30.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon+1.0pt13.1%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.3M
- 24h Vol
- $980.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt51.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt46.5%
- Renan Santos+0.8pt2%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.5%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.4%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.4M
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson-1.0pt67%
- Susan Collins33%
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $608.7K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate-1.0pt46.1%
- D-House, R-Senate36.3%
- R-House, R-Senate15.7%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.3M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Berlin State Election: 3rd Place?
- Polymarket prices AfD at 29% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Berlin State Election: 3rd Place resolve?
- Berlin State Election: 3rd Place is scheduled to resolve on September 20, 2026.
- How is Berlin State Election: 3rd Place settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
- Where else is Berlin State Election: 3rd Place listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.