PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 97%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$12.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
1.9% / 4.7%
Spread
2.8 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Apr 8, 26, 10:16 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes3%
Volume trend
$30Jul 162d of dataJul 17
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program.
- Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count.
- The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.