MyriadCurrent implied probability
Yes 6.8%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$355.4
Liquidity
$1.5K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 17, 25, 3:09 PMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
YES7%
Compare venues· NO
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MyriadThis pageMost active | 93% | — | $355.4 | $1.5K | 2 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets | 92% | — | — | — | 2 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?
23d
8.3%
91.7%
Community forecast109 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$12.5K
24h Vol$0
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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**Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date to July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** July 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** This market will be resolved after the Market Close, or earlier if the outcome is reached.
- **Yes/No Criteria:**
- - Resolves to **"Yes"** if both Russia and Ukraine formally agree to a complete ceasefire through an official, publicly announced agreement before or at Resolution Time.
- The agreement must mandate a total cessation of all military operations—including but not limited to ground, air, naval, and cyber warfare—across all territories involved in the conflict (e.g., Ukraine, Russian-occupied territories, and border regions).
- Additionally, the ceasefire must be bilateral, with both Russia and Ukraine explicitly committing to halting all offensive and defensive military actions against each other, and it must apply to the entire conflict zone without geographic exceptions (e.g., it cannot exclude specific regions like Donbas or Crimea). - Resolves to **"No"** if all of the above conditions are not met before the Market Period ends