Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?
One-OffAIRussia / UkraineChinaGeopoliticsPolitics4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.1%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 8:07 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if a leader of a nuclear power not canonically aligned with the West (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) makes a public statement before January 1, 2031 that frames superhuman AI systems as a grave threat to their nation's sovereignty, and expresses an implicit or explicit willingness to act decisively on the basis of that threat.
- This could include:
- Arguing that a rival's creation of ASI would likely undermine national sovereignty, either by loss of control or domination by an ASI-wielding rival
- Calling for international bans or severe restrictions on ASI development
- Framing ASI as comparable to or exceeding nuclear weapons as a threat to the state
- Threatening or calling for preemptive military action against ASI development
