Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 65.6%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 27, 23, 12:46 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine join NATO before July 2033?
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PolymarketWill a new country join NATO before 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
Same question but 2030: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-end-o-3f350ddb8055?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
- Same question but 2040:
- https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-end-o-47e71f524701?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
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- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? resolve?
- Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2036.
- How is Will Ukraine join NATO before end of 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Same question but 2030: https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-ukraine-join-nato-before-end-o-3f350ddb8055?r=R2FzdG9uS2Vzc2xlcg