Will Ukraine attack Belarus by the end of 2026
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 23, 26, 9:15 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026, Ukrainian military forces (or state-sanctioned actors) launch or execute a deliberate military strike, drone strike, missile strike, artillery barrage, or ground incursion targeting assets or territory inside the internationally recognized borders of Belarus.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Key conditions and clarifications:
- Eligible events: Deliberate military operations targeting Belarusian territory, including strikes to disable Russian-linked infrastructure on Belarusian soil (such as the drone-relay equipment mentioned in President Zelenskyy's June 2026 ultimatum), will resolve the market to YES.
- Exclusions: Unintentional border incidents, stray Ukrainian air-defense missiles chasing Russian targets, or falling debris from intercepted targets will not qualify unless major international news outlets confirm the strike was a deliberate operation targeting Belarusian soil.
