Current community forecast
Yes 72.6%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 10:21 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
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PolymarketWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This is a sequel to this market: @/Tumbles/will-tumbles-understand-why-raising I haven't given up yet.
- I am Tumbles, and I have had the relationship between interest rates and inflation explained many times.
- I have gone back and forth with chatGPT about it on more than one occasion.
- I still do not grasp the fundamental mechanisms at play.
- Resolution Criteria:
- This resolves YES if Tumbles feels he grasps the shape of the fundamental mechanisms that connect the federal interest rate to inflation.
