Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.7%
Forecasters
82
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 24, 3:07 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Did "Elon Musk and Russia participate in election interference via Starlink"?
Manifold MarketsWill a bill or proposal be brought to a vote, that would allow President Trump to run for a third term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump were elected in 2024, will Trump attempt to run for a third term in 2028 or 2032?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
resolves YES if
- trump formally announces a campaign for the 2028 election, whether or not it is legal at the time
- other republicans campaign trump as a party candidate
- he wins the 2028 election, even if he does not formally announce he is running
- resolves NO if
- trump announces he will not run for a 3rd term at the time of market close