Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028??

Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of October 28, 2026.

When does Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028? resolve?

Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.

How is Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Joshua Zeitz argues that “the odds aren’t zero.” https://x.com/joshuamzeitz/status/1808130997436797139?s=46&t=KXHuklQ7fpBGC3MqBbD7ug

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+1.8pt96%
• 25 bps increase-1.9pt4%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$82.3M

24h Vol

$8.3M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt62.5%
• D-House, R-Senate28.5%
• Republicans sweep-0.4pt

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party+0.3pt90.8%
• Republican Party-0.3pt9.4%

Total Vol

$75.4M

24h Vol

$2.1M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico65.5%
• Ken Paxton34.5%

Total Vol

$45.6M

24h Vol

$1.9M

KALSHI

What will Trump say during his rally in Lubbock, Texas?

• Deport / Deported / Deportation+80.0pt99.5%
• Save America Act+4.0pt99.5%
• Sanctuary+11.0pt

KALSHI

Texas Governor winner?

• Greg Abbott-2.0pt66.5%
• Gina Hinojosa+3.0pt33.5%

Total Vol

$7.5M

24h Vol

$1.1M

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