Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028??

Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028? resolve?

Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028? is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.

How is Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Joshua Zeitz argues that “the odds aren’t zero.” https://x.com/joshuamzeitz/status/1808130997436797139?s=46&t=KXHuklQ7fpBGC3MqBbD7ug

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KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep+4.0pt69.5%
• D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt26.5%
• Republicans sweep-2.6pt5.5%

+1 more outcomes

Total Vol

$77.3M

24h Vol

$10.1M

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico+2.0pt70.5%
• Ken Paxton29.5%

Total Vol

$58.3M

24h Vol

$6M

KALSHI

Who will control the House?

• Democratic Party+1.8pt93.5%
• Republican Party-1.8pt6.5%

Total Vol

$86.2M

24h Vol

$4.4M

POLYMARKET

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?

• None-1.0pt23.8%
• IA, KS+4.0pt12.4%
• IA+3.9pt11.4%

+125 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

• Democrats Sweep+3.0pt68.9%
• R Senate, D-1.0pt24.3%
• Republicans Sweep-1.0pt5.8%

+2 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

• Democratic Party93.1%
• Republican Party6.9%

Total Vol

$33.1M

24h Vol

$2.1M

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