Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 24, 9:01 PM UTCNov 16, 28, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
If Trump wins the election in 2024, his record in office could affect the results of 2028, either by causing people to sour on the Republican Party, or convincing more people to vote for the Republican Party after a successful term.
- Therefore, the probability here should not necessarily be the same as @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-republican-be-elected-presid
- No matter who wins the 2024 election, the 2028 election is likely to have no incumbent, since either Joe Biden or Donald Trump would be prevented from running for reelection by term limits.
- Therefore, the difference between this market and the unconditional version can be compared to the difference between @/PlasmaBallin/conditional-on-a-biden-being-electe and @/PlasmaBallin/will-a-democrat-be-elected-presiden, since neither one is influenced by an incumbency advantage or disadvantage - both are purely measures of whether a certain candidate's term will strengthen or weaken the chances of their party's next nominee.
