Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 80.1%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 14, 24, 3:36 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Conditional on Trump being elected in 2024, will the Supreme Court allow him to seek a third term in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be noticeably more successful at accomplishing his goals in his second term than he was in his first?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump is impeached in his second term, what will he be charged with?
Manifold MarketsWhat changes will Trump make to the Department of Education by the end of his term? Will he kill the Department and how?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.