Will Donald Trump be noticeably more successful at accomplishing his goals in his second term than he was in his first?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 10, 24, 12:19 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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No, I cannot articulate specific criteria by which this can be measured.
- I suspect if it’s true there will be consensus, though perhaps not consensus on whether it’s a good thing.
- But I am a basically reasonable human being with decent judgment and I think you can trust me to resolve this fairly.
- I won’t participate, but my guess as of November 2024 is yes.
