Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleNov 16, 24, 4:37 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
PolymarketWho will Trump pardon in 2026?
KalshiHow many people will Trump pardon in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2026?
PredictItWill Trump pardon Nicolás Maduro or commute his sentence in 2026?
PredictItRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.4pt97%
- $50M+10.6pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
- $795K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $657.9K
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Total Vol
- $748.1K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.8%
- Republican Party-2.0pt15.2%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $247.6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump pardon tiger king by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Trump pardon tiger king by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Trump pardon tiger king by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.