Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 6, 26, 1:07 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia recognize the independence of Transnistria in 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR, commonly known as Transnistria) ceases to exist as a de facto independent breakaway state.
- This condition will be met if any of the following events occur:
- The de facto authorities in Tiraspol formally agree to dissolve their parallel state structures and fully reintegrate into the legal, fiscal, and administrative framework of the Republic of Moldova, with Chisinau assuming complete administrative and security control over the region.
- The de facto government and military/security forces of the PMR are disbanded, surrendered, or removed, and no successor breakaway administration maintains de facto control over the territory.
- The territory is officially annexed or absorbed by another internationally recognized state (such as the Russian Federation) and ceases to operate under its own self-proclaimed independent authority.