Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.3%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleAug 6, 26, 1:07 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia recognize the independence of Transnistria in 2026?
FutuurWhen will NATO dissolve?
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PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, the self-proclaimed Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR, commonly known as Transnistria) ceases to exist as a de facto independent breakaway state.
- This condition will be met if any of the following events occur:
- The de facto authorities in Tiraspol formally agree to dissolve their parallel state structures and fully reintegrate into the legal, fiscal, and administrative framework of the Republic of Moldova, with Chisinau assuming complete administrative and security control over the region.
- The de facto government and military/security forces of the PMR are disbanded, surrendered, or removed, and no successor breakaway administration maintains de facto control over the territory.
- The territory is officially annexed or absorbed by another internationally recognized state (such as the Russian Federation) and ceases to operate under its own self-proclaimed independent authority.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? resolve?
- Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Transnistria dissolve by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria