Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 84.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 26, 10:40 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be hard fuel rationing in the UK in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill Treasury ease Russia sanctions beyond diesel (crude oil, gasoline or jet fuel) before Election Day, Nov 3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill gas prices in New York exceed $4.1 for the week ending October 26, 2026? (gasoline) (fuel costs) (pump costs)?
ForecastExWill US Gasoline prices exceed $1.7 for the week ending June 29, 2027? (Fuel) (Pump cost) (Energy) (Petroleum)?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if the government issues formal advice to citizens and / or businesses, even if not backed by a specific law or legal threat, that they should restrict their consumption of any fossil fuel.
- Things that would trigger a YES resolution (examples, not exclusive)
- Advice to work from home where possible due to fuel storages.
- “Alternate day filling” type rules.
- Any kind of logistical system set up that prioritises e.g. hospitals.
- I will be arbiter of what is or is not soft rationing so will not bet on this market.
