Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 26, 10:40 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be hard fuel rationing in the UK in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAustralian Government Announces Fuel Rationing
Manifold MarketsWill US Gasoline prices exceed $1.7 for the week ending June 29, 2027? (Fuel) (Pump cost) (Energy) (Petroleum)?
ForecastExWill any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the government issues formal advice to citizens and / or businesses, even if not backed by a specific law or legal threat, that they should restrict their consumption of any fossil fuel.
- Things that would trigger a YES resolution (examples, not exclusive)
- Advice to work from home where possible due to fuel storages.
- “Alternate day filling” type rules.
- Any kind of logistical system set up that prioritises e.g. hospitals.
- I will be arbiter of what is or is not soft rationing so will not bet on this market.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be soft fuel rationing in the UK in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be soft fuel rationing in the UK in 2026? resolve?
- Will there be soft fuel rationing in the UK in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be soft fuel rationing in the UK in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the government issues formal advice to citizens and / or businesses, even if not backed by a specific law or legal threat, that they should restrict their consumption of any fossil fuel.