UK Autumn Budget 2026: will it freeze fuel duty or cancel a scheduled rise?
One-Off16dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 22, 26, 2:32 PM UTCOct 28, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
YES if HM Treasury's policy decisions table shows a fuel duty measure with a negative Exchequer impact in 2027-28 (a freeze, a cancelled or delayed increase, or a cut).
- Polymarket asks the opposite question (a fuel duty increase) and priced it at 28.5% on 21 Sep 2026.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.