Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?
Middle EastOne-OffAIChina5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 88%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 1:48 PM UTCFeb 28, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+3.0pt100%
- September 25+9.5pt95%
- September 30+5.0pt85%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $529.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.4pt63%
- October 31+1.5pt38%
- September 30-3.0pt9%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+1.4pt55.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt29.2%
- Naftali Bennett-2.0pt8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by which date?
- October 31+5.0pt77%
- September 30-2.5pt32%
- September 22-5.4pt4%
+1 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No83.2%
- Yes16.8%
- Total Vol
- $67.6M
- 24h Vol
- $165.2K
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 88% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? resolve?
- Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher? is scheduled to resolve on February 28, 2027.