Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 26, 26, 5:52 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Algeria and Morocco reestablish diplomatic relations in 2026?
Futuur🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a war over AI before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill France's next president officially apologize to Algeria for colonization?
Manifold MarketsAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations
- Border skirmishes count as wars if there's more than a dozen dead.
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Western Sahara-related clashes at the Algeria border to count: both the Moroccan and Algerian governments must be involved in some capacity.
- It has to be soldiers (of some kind) vs soldiers, not just people with guns killing civilians.
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For clashes involving non-state militias: the militia must be backed by the government to count toward resolution.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a war between Morocco and Algeria before 2034??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a war between Morocco and Algeria before 2034? resolve?
- Will there be a war between Morocco and Algeria before 2034? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2033.
- How is Will there be a war between Morocco and Algeria before 2034? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations