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🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Trade Policy GeopoliticsOne-OffEurope2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 89.8%

Forecasters

7

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 13 hours ago

Stale

Apr 6, 26, 11:43 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" if a state of declared or undeclared armed conflict exists between the United States and the European Union, or between the United States and any individual member state of the European Union, at any point before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.
For the purposes of this market, "armed conflict" is defined as a sustained, organized, and intentional use of lethal military force by the armed forces of one party against the other.
Minor diplomatic incidents, trade wars, economic sanctions, cyber warfare without physical casualties, or isolated border skirmishes not constituting a broader act of war do not qualify.
Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times).
In the event of ambiguity, the market will look for official statements from the U.S. Department of State, the European Commission, or the governments of the involved nations confirming the existence of a state of war or active armed conflict.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028??: Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
When does 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? resolve?: 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
How is 🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

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