🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?
Trade PolicyGeopoliticsOne-OffEurope2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 89.8%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 11:43 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "YES" if a state of declared or undeclared armed conflict exists between the United States and the European Union, or between the United States and any individual member state of the European Union, at any point before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2028.
- For the purposes of this market, "armed conflict" is defined as a sustained, organized, and intentional use of lethal military force by the armed forces of one party against the other.
- Minor diplomatic incidents, trade wars, economic sanctions, cyber warfare without physical casualties, or isolated border skirmishes not constituting a broader act of war do not qualify.
- Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The New York Times).
- In the event of ambiguity, the market will look for official statements from the U.S. Department of State, the European Commission, or the governments of the involved nations confirming the existence of a state of war or active armed conflict.
