What are the current odds for Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 76.4% as of October 26, 2026.

Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:48 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 76.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 minutes ago

May 27, 25, 2:13 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve YES if, before January 1, 2030, credible sources (e.g., official governmental announcements, reputable international media, major academic institutions) report a military conflict involving both the United States and China resulting in at least 1,000 confirmed military deaths for each side.
Military deaths must include uniformed personnel, excluding civilian casualties or indirect deaths (e.g., deaths from economic disruption or secondary effects).
Covert or proxy conflicts will count ONLY if direct involvement of official U.S. and Chinese military personnel is verifiably documented by credible sources, resulting in at least 1,000 fatalities on each side.
This market resolves NO if no such conflict meeting the criteria occurs by January 1, 2030.