Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 61.8%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 16, 24, 7:45 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 6:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves according to Wikipedia article.
- Update 2025-06-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator clarified that:
- A mention of the eruption in the volcano's own Wikipedia article is sufficient.
- The Wikipedia page "List of volcanic eruptions in the 21st century" is also a key source, as such eruptions are typically listed there.
Open markets
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+2 more outcomes
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+5 more outcomes
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- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
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- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
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+1 more outcomes
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- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
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- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to Wikipedia article.