Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
After 2028 94.1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 25, 5:16 AM UTCJan 31, 29, 9:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves according to https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates
- Mount Spurr is an active stratovolcano located in the Aleutian Range of Alaska, about 80 miles (130 km) west of Anchorage.
- Its most recent significant eruptions occurred in 1953 and a series of three eruptions in 1992 (June 27, August 18, and September).
- The 1992 eruptions affected Anchorage with ashfall, particularly the August 18 event.
- Scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory have recently noted increased activity at Mount Spurr, suggesting a potential eruption in the coming weeks or months.
- The volcano is monitored closely due to its proximity to Anchorage, Alaska's largest city.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Mount Spurr significant eruption by date??
- Manifold Markets prices After 2028 at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? resolve?
- Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2029.
- How is Mount Spurr significant eruption by date? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves according to https://www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/volcano-updates