Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 2, 23, 6:26 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Lake Kivu erupt before 2030?
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KalshiRules
Mount Vesuvius is in an extended period of inactivity, having not erupted since 1944.
- This market resolves YES if, before 01/01/2030, there is an eruption there of 1 or higher on the Volcanic Explosivity Index
Open markets
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- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
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+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $265.8K
- 24h Vol
- $109.9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
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- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? resolve?
- Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Mount Vesuvius is in an extended period of inactivity, having not erupted since 1944.