Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 23, 2:31 AM UTCJan 2, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover
- HOWEVER, the test is not for "at least one known lost work" but rather "at least 85% of one 1000-word-or-more passage".
- This should diverge from @LarsDoucet 's market and result in YES when his would NO in at least the following conditions:
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was already universally incomplete (e.g., if it turns out scribes as of 79 AD already had lost access to part of a work)
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was locally incomplete (e.g., a particular chapter scroll of a larger work had been by bad luck been borrowed that day by a scribe for copying, and that scribe took the scroll with him when evacuating, and it was lost to history)
- The challenge doesn't recover everything -- we just have less luck recovering consistent long blocks of text, versus fragmentary passages, than Lars hopes.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? resolve?
- Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2031.
- How is Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover