Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 85%
Forecasters
102
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 1, 26, 1:35 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
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KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if at least one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is solved in 2026.
- A problem is considered solved if:
- A complete proof is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of worldwide repute, OR
- There is consensus among leading experts in the relevant field that the problem has been solved
- The proof must be published in a refereed mathematics publication of worldwide repute and achieve general acceptance in the mathematics community.
Open markets
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.7M
- 24h Vol
- $99K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+9.0pt85%
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2029+29.1pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $17.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+4.5pt75.3%
- 221.8%
- 32%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
- before October+63.0pt97%
+3 more outcomes
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? resolve?
- Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria