Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 78.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 23, 5:36 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsWill a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the of the IMOs in 2023-2030 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).
- This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2031.
- It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2030 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.
- This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).
