Current community forecast
Yes 78.9%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 23, 5:36 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
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KalshiRules
This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the of the IMOs in 2023-2030 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).
- This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2031.
- It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2030 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.
- This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
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+4 more outcomes
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.