Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastnot by 2032 55.1%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 23, 7:00 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiRules
This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/
- I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC).
- Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.
- This resolves "the named outcome" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032.
- It will also resolve "the named outcome" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed??
- Manifold Markets prices not by 2032 at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed? resolve?
- What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.