Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:30 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastnot by 2032 38.7%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
28
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 25, 23, 7:00 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/
- I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC).
- Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.
- This resolves "the named outcome" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032.
- It will also resolve "the named outcome" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.