Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
AICommoditiesManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast>= 25 years 41.6%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 26, 23, 6:52 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
- * B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com
- This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer.
- For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year".
- If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week".
- It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)?
- Manifold Markets prices >= 25 years at 42% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) resolve?
- Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat