Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 2, 23, 1:25 AM UTCJan 2, 50, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?
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Manifold MarketsMajor volcano eruption in 2026?
KalshiMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050? resolve?
- Will any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2050.