Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 65.8%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
63
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 21, 26, 7:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Most profitable Manifold user at end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Trump Wear a Crown?
Manifold MarketsWill I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRules
I.e. to buy the Crown from the Mana Shop.
- (Manifold employees and contractors excluded)
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown? resolve?
- Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Who will be the first Manifold user to wear the crown? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I.e. to buy the Crown from the Mana Shop.