Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.8%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 26, 1:30 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Large meaning more than 1-10 people and Violent meaning getting in armed conflict with ICE officers ( Firearms, Weapons etc).
- Unarmed conflict can be counted as well, but it must result in great bodily harm to be considered serious, Vehicles may also be considered (ie ICE hitting protesters or protesters hitting ICE with a car) In general something large enough to make national news.
- Simple violence like pushing, spitting, slapping and one off small scale instances of punching, etc will not be counted
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if there is a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026 that meets the following criteria:
- Scale: Involves more than 10 people
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026? resolve?
- Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Large meaning more than 1-10 people and Violent meaning getting in armed conflict with ICE officers ( Firearms, Weapons etc).