What are the current odds for Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027??

Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 9, 2026.

Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?

One-OffScience3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 68.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 1, 23, 8:16 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

This market resolves YES if, before 1st Jan 2027, there is a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index anywhere on Earth.

Report a data issue with this market

Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?

One-OffScience3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 68.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 hours ago

Stale

Jul 1, 23, 8:16 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027??: Manifold Markets prices No at 69% as of September 9, 2026.
When does Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027? resolve?: Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
How is Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, before 1st Jan 2027, there is a volcanic explosion of 5 or larger on the Volcanic Explosivity Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index anywhere on Earth.

Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?

Will there be a large volcanic explosion before 2027?

Frequently asked questions

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