Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030?
One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineLatin America3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 6:41 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
In the modern era, seven countries (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have made official territorial claims on part of Antartica.
- These claims are not widely recognized and the Antarctic treaty, which is widely ratified, forbids new claims.
- While the US and Russia have ratified the treaty, they have also reserved the right to make a territorial claim.
- And beside, treaties can be exited or disregarded.
- Official claim, by the country governeming body
- Antarctica "mainland", not islands or oceanic shelves (by themselves, could be part of the claim)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? resolve?
- Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will the USA make a territorial claim in Antarctica, before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In the modern era, seven countries (Argentina, Australia, Chile, France, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have made official territorial claims on part of Antartica.