Will the US formally notify a new arms sale to Taiwan (DSCA/TECRO) by November 30, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 83.1%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleSep 25, 26, 8:27 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) publishes a Major Arms Sales announcement that the State Department has approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO), i.e. a formal congressional notification of an arms sale to Taiwan.
- Oracle: the DSCA Major Arms Sales page for TECRO — https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/taipei-economic-and-cultural-representative-office-united-states-tecro — or DSCA's main Major Arms Sales listing.
- Any TECRO notification counts, of any size, including spare parts or follow-on support.
- It does not need to be part of the reported $14B package.
- Resolves NO if no such DSCA announcement is dated within the window.
- The following do NOT count: news reports that a sale "will go ahead", informal notifications to Congress that DSCA hasn't published, direct commercial sales, Presidential Drawdown Authority transfers, Foreign Military Financing, and contracts signed under sales that were notified before this market was created.
