Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 17, 26, 1:40 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump bomb Oman?
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the United States military conducts any offensive kinetic military strike—including airstrikes, drone strikes, naval bombardments, or missile strikes—targeting locations within the sovereign territory or territorial waters of Oman on or before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Source of Truth: Official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), the Omani government, or credible international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC).
- Inclusions: Any acknowledged kinetic strikes on Omani soil or maritime territory by U.S. forces, including accidental strikes or unauthorized actions subsequently confirmed by official military sources.
- Exclusions: Defensive military actions (such as U.S. forces intercepting missiles or drones over Omani airspace without striking targets on Omani territory) and cyber warfare do not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US bomb Oman by the end of September??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US bomb Oman by the end of September? resolve?
- Will the US bomb Oman by the end of September? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will the US bomb Oman by the end of September? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria