Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsSociety & Culture3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 60.7%
Forecasters
152
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJul 10, 23, 8:22 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 4:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Contingent Market: Donald Trump Election and Constitutional Crisis
Manifold MarketsWill the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
FutuurIf the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a national 6 week or less abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
Manifold MarketsWhich firearm will receive the most votes in Idaho's State Gun advisory question?
KalshiWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsIdaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
PolymarketRules
To qualify, the crisis should be listed here:
- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis
- If Wikipedia becomes unreliable, defunct, or does not list a crisis but there's a broad consensus that there has been one, then I'm open to resolving according to a different source.
- Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Consensus Clarification
- If Wikipedia lists a constitutional crisis but there is a broad consensus that it has not occurred, the resolution may be based on a different, less biased source.
- A broad consensus requires more than strong disagreement (for example, stark differences between left and right perspectives); in such a case, Wikipedia remains the guiding source.