FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 91%
No 91%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.2K
Low liquidityTraders
4
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketUS real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiRules
This market predicts whether the United States will report negative real GDP growth in at least one of the first three quarters of 2026 (Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026).
- If the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted, annualized real GDP growth rate of less than 0% for any of Q1 2026, Q2 2026, or Q3 2026 — based on the BEA's third (final) estimate for that quarter, or the most recent published estimate available by December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product release.
- Resolution uses the third estimate (final) where available, otherwise the most recent BEA estimate for the quarter as of December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC.
- A consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg) may confirm the BEA figures.