Current community forecast
Yes 96.3%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 23, 2:06 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?
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PolymarketNegative growth in Brazil's GDP in any quarter of 2026?
FutuurWill the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
FutuurRules
Inspired on this tweet: https://twitter.com/AnilVohra1962/status/1647369765391069184?t=gigWHNeMZd1iQbvEgW7lTA&s=19
- [image]This market will resolve to YES if this measure of Inflation- Unemployment Rate, as measured in the Fred is below -4% the next time the Federal Reserve cuts the baseline rates.
- I may bet on this market
- May 3, 11:08pm: Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below 4%? → Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt51.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.2%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.3M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.8%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.7%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.6pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%? resolve?
- Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired on this tweet: https://twitter.com/AnilVohra1962/status/1647369765391069184?t=gigWHNeMZd1iQbvEgW7lTA&s=19