Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 3:10 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 96.3%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleMay 4, 23, 2:06 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
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ForecastExColombia minimum wage growth minus inflation in 2027
KalshiWill the ECB (deposit facility) interest rate be negative before 2033?
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ForecastExRules
Inspired on this tweet: https://twitter.com/AnilVohra1962/status/1647369765391069184?t=gigWHNeMZd1iQbvEgW7lTA&s=19
- [image]This market will resolve to YES if this measure of Inflation- Unemployment Rate, as measured in the Fred is below -4% the next time the Federal Reserve cuts the baseline rates.
- I may bet on this market
- May 3, 11:08pm: Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below 4%? → Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
