PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%+0.3pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$947.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.1% / 2.4%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
5
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 9:18 PM UTCJan 29, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Futuur[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Manifold MarketsNegative growth in Brazil's GDP in any quarter of 2026?
FutuurJapan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
PolymarketGDP growth in 2026
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
- The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution.
- Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Negative GDP growth in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Negative GDP growth in 2026? resolve?
- Negative GDP growth in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 29, 2027.
- How is Negative GDP growth in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.
