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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Economy
  3. Negative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

0.1% (24h)EconomyOne-Off7mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 8%
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$851.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.3% / 10.5%

Spread

66.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.3%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Nov 13, 25, 9:27 PMJan 29, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes8%

Rules

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S.

Polymarket
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
  • The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
  • Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution.
  • Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,918.78+2.85%EthereumETH$1,659.69+2.60%SolanaSOL$65.39+3.10%

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Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

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Active in these topics

DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.99%XRPXRP$1.12+1.01%BNBBNB$600.02+2.80%CardanoADA$0.1665+4.01%HyperliquidHYPE$55.94+0.46%LitecoinLTC$42.53+1.06%

Rules

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S.

Polymarket
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
  • The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
  • Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution.
  • Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.