Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 US presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJ.D. Vance vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 61.5%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 25, 8:28 PM UTCNov 10, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
When the primaries for both parties' candidates conclude, the combination of the Republican and Democratic nominees selected by the primaries will begin to function as a regular binary market, and all other options will resolve N/A and will be regarded as irrelevant for the remaining duration of the market.
- If the Republican nominee listed on the option wins the presidential election, the chosen option shall resolve YES.
- If the Democratic nominee (or a third party/independent candidate) wins, the chosen option shall resolve NO.
- The 9 initial combinations of candidates provided here are based on the current betting favorites on Polymarket.
- Anyone may add a combination to this market.
- The format for adding an option to the market is as follows:
