Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028?
PoliticsAIOne-OffUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 28, 26, 4:56 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 4:48 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Glencore's Congo deal result in a 2% increase in global copper supply by July 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen, where or how will Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiRules
Examples of what I would consider meaningful negative impacts:
- A significant drop in userbase or subscribers that seems to be connected
- Impactful hostile government action targeting OpenAI or Sam Altman by e.g. a Democratic controlled congress
- Retribution from the Trump administration because OpenAI reneged on the deal
- This may resolve YES early if something significant and unambiguously negative happens.
- If it is ambiguous, I will not resolve hastily and may extend the resolution deadline until I am convinced one way or the other.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $884.5K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $655K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? resolve?
- Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will the OpenAI/DoD deal result in meaningful negative consequences for OpenAI by the end of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Examples of what I would consider meaningful negative impacts: