Current community forecast
No 50.2%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
May 6, 25, 3:08 PM UTCMar 30, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWIll AfD be part of a federal governing coalition in Germany by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if the next german election does not take place before January 2029.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029? resolve?
- Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029? is scheduled to resolve on March 30, 2029.
- How is Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves yes if the next german election does not take place before January 2029.