Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffSpace1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.2%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 4:23 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, Myanmar's military junta has conducted confirmed airstrikes targeting rare earth mining infrastructure in Kachin State.
- YES if by December 31, 2027:
- Credible reporting confirms junta aerial bombardment of RE mining sites, processing facilities, or RE-specific transport infrastructure in Chipwi/Pangwa/Momeik
- No confirmed airstrikes on RE mining sites by December 31, 2027
- Airstrikes occurred near but not targeting mining operations
- Resolution sources (priority order):
