What are the current odds for Will Myanmar's junta still be in control of Myanmar through 2026??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 94% as of November 1, 2026.

Will Myanmar's junta still be in control of Myanmar through 2026?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 94%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Dec 2, 25, 2:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves to yes if the current military government still controls the capital of Naypyidaw on Dec. 31, 2026.

Resolves to no if they lose control of the capital to another faction.
Resolves to no if they hold elections in 2026 that are deemed free and fair by international observers and/or the mainstream Western media AND the elected positions hold substantive power.
If Myanmar has a limited democracy like before the 2021 coup, the question resolve to no.