Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly before the war ends?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine14y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60.7%
Forecasters
84
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleSep 15, 23, 5:42 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time as a result of military action, before the conflict concludes with a peace deal or long-term armistice? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
- Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol.
- Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
- This explicitly excludes any negotiated or otherwise unforced territorial changes (e.g. if Russia voluntarily withdraws from Ukrainian territory).
- The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases.
- UPD: For more on resolution criteria, see my comment on why I resolved the 2024 market as "no".
