Will the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026?
FedOne-OffTrade PolicyWeather2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 70.8%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 12, 26, 10:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
KalshiTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
PolymarketUS effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
KalshiCanadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026
KalshiTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
PolymarketWhich sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2026, the German federal government officially legislates or enacts a regulatory change that entirely eliminates the Einspeisevergütung (feed-in tariff) for new, small-scale photovoltaic installations.
- "Small-scale" is defined according to the thresholds established in the Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) at the time of the potential policy change.
- If the tariff is modified, reduced, or restructured but not fully repealed for all new small-scale systems, the market will resolve to NO.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) or the publication of amended EEG legislation in the Bundesgesetzblatt (Federal Law Gazette).
- The Einspeisevergütung is a core component of the German Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), designed to incentivize the expansion of renewable energy by guaranteeing grid operators pay fixed rates for electricity fed into the grid.
