Will the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026?
FedOne-OffTrade PolicyWeather3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.8%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 12, 26, 10:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2026, the German federal government officially legislates or enacts a regulatory change that entirely eliminates the Einspeisevergütung (feed-in tariff) for new, small-scale photovoltaic installations.
- "Small-scale" is defined according to the thresholds established in the Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) at the time of the potential policy change.
- If the tariff is modified, reduced, or restructured but not fully repealed for all new small-scale systems, the market will resolve to NO.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) or the publication of amended EEG legislation in the Bundesgesetzblatt (Federal Law Gazette).
- The Einspeisevergütung is a core component of the German Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG), designed to incentivize the expansion of renewable energy by guaranteeing grid operators pay fixed rates for electricity fed into the grid.
Open markets
FedKALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.7M
- 24h Vol
- $2M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt50.5%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42.6%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt2%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.8pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026? resolve?
- Will the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the feed-in tariff (Einspeisevergütung) of small of small photovoltaics be repealed in Germany in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria