Current community forecast
No 97.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Aug 4, 26, 3:21 AM UTCSep 23, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Sept. 16, 2026 FOMC meeting?
Manifold MarketsWill the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?
Manifold MarketsWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill a majority of the Fed vote to raise rates by Sept. 16?
PredictItWill the Fed lower the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of exactly 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) to the target range for the federal funds rate at its next meeting concluding after August 4, 2026.
- As of August 2026, the target range is 3.50%–3.75%.
- A 25 basis point cut would lower this range to 3.25%–3.50%.
- This market will resolve to NO if the FOMC maintains the current rate, increases the rate, or reduces the rate by any other increment (such as 50 basis points).
- The "next meeting" refers to the next FOMC meeting to announce a rate decision, which is scheduled for September 15–16, 2026.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt51.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt44.2%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.3M
- 24h Vol
- $3M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt49.8%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt43.7%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.9pt2%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.6pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.5pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.1pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting? resolve?
- Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting? is scheduled to resolve on September 23, 2026.
- How is Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at its next meeting? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria